[Music]
Hello and welcome to this special
edition of Talking Politics where we'll
be discussing reform, immigration, and
Nigel Farage's flip-flopping, if that's
what you call it. This time he appears
to have rode back on a policy he
announced just yesterday. Here's what he
said then. The only way
we will stop the boats
is by detaining and deporting absolutely
anyone that comes via that route. And
yes, women and children, everybody on
arrival will be detained.
>> Absolutely
anyone. Women and children. But today he
seemed to have somewhat changed his
tune. I was very very clear yesterday in
what I said that that the deportation of
illegal immigrants, we were not even
discussing women and children at this
stage. There were so many illegal males
in Britain and the news reports that
said that after my conference yesterday
were wrong, wrong.
There was further clarification when he
then said that single woman might indeed
be deported. And in terms of women with
children, well, that all had to be
worked out. And here to discuss all of
this uh with me is Peter Smith. Peter,
look,
this is kind of a fascinating story and
I'm really interested to talk to you for
lots of reasons. The reason we're doing
this kind of special edition in the
middle of the summer, I suppose we're in
the late summer now, is because I think
this is an issue that people are really
really interested in. reform have been
running at eight to 10 points ahead of
Labor nationally for really quite a long
time now most of the year and that is
telling us something about the state of
our national politics UKwide and what
that seems to me to be telling you can
read lots of things into it we've
talking spoken to our election analysts
and our election experts and we've all
debated with them what this is and is
not telling us and you could argue well
the electorate's pretty volatile and
voters
are in a pretty rebellious mood and
reform is the protest votes of choice,
it doesn't necessarily mean they'd vote
that way in an election. But when a
party's been that far ahead for that
long, I think you have to assume that it
is telling you something and it most
obviously seems to be telling you
something about immigration. Can you
talk us through both what you thought of
the press conference, what you think of
the changing, you know, Mr. Farage is
changing tune um and about what you make
of the detail of the policy generally
and how it holds up to scrutiny.
>> Yeah, a lot of the audience might be um
playing spot the difference on those two
clips and what a difference 24 hours can
make indeed in politics. Tom, I mean I
think that what's interesting here is
that um reform themselves are struggling
to really present a clear vision for
mass deportations. They know that it's
popular. They know that voters are
willing to buy into it, but it's the
delivery that's always uh the Achilles
heel for any political party that we've
seen try to deal with the issue of, for
example, the boat crossings or illegal
immigration, even legal uh migration to
the UK. So, um it's it's in terms of the
you know, the devil is in the detail and
even reform who've tried to take the
sort of hardest line from any mainstream
political party to this issue, they've
you know, begun to falter when their
idea has barely left the launchpad. Um
now again we've had that clarity now
from the reform leader Nigel Farai
saying as you said Tom you know that
that okay we will deport everyone but
when it comes to uh women and children
then it's a little bit more complicated
children we have to take that into
consideration women with children
families it's it's even more complicated
um but single women will be deported and
that's going to be something that part
of the 600,000 that they say they're
going to deport in the first 5 years I
would compare it as well Tom you might
remember Just you know a couple of
months ago there was a launch of reforms
economic perspectus and again that when
it was put under the microscope people
started to pick holes in that and and
again this hasn't even really needed to
be put under the microscope has it?
It certainly hasn't and I mean I think
you know yes people did pick holes in
that. I I think the question here really
is,
you know, what it basically boils down
to is that
I don't think Labor is going to win the
next election unless it can demonstrate
to people that it's got some kind of
grip about the small boats crossing. And
I used to think just being completely
honest about it, setting aside anyone's
politics, just looking at it objectively
and trying to work out the best way of
actually getting a result
was for greater cooperation with Europe.
This is a Europewide problem. It's not
just a problem of the UK. Certainly not
something we're facing alone. You know,
the Italians have got their problems.
The Germans have got their problems. The
French, the Austrians, everyone is
trying to deal with this in their own
way. people are taking truthfully more
and more drastic measures in order to
try and address the public's concerns
about it. And I kind of thought having
spent many many hours debating this with
politicians over not only the last 5
years but the last 10 years and longer
that if you wanted to sort these
problems out probably the answer was
more European cooperation. But like
the truth is that governments are
struggling and I don't think Labor are
going to win the next election now. I'm
sort of increasingly convinced
personally that they're not going to win
it unless they can demonstrate to people
that they are going to get a grip on it.
And you've you know it's really
interesting watching these old Labor
stalwarts like David Blunk, like Jack
Straw, who you would think of as how
would you call them?
They're kind of old labor and I don't
mean that as an insult but they've you
know they're
>> slightly reflect Yeah. Well, they're
sort of the conservative the socially
conservative
aspect of the old labor movement and
here they are saying that you know the
government should think about at least
potentially suspending the European
Convention on Human Rights to allow them
to kind of get a grip on this problem.
But of course, you know, David Blunkett
and Jack Straw not necessarily providing
any detail either. So I guess I was kind
of interested to see with the reform
agenda whether you thought having
examined it there was something that
would hold up long enough for the
electorate to say okay this is the
answer or do you think it will gradually
you know there was the the fact they
were going to deport people to Ascension
Island as a sort of last resort and now
people have you know I've read it
suggested that that's not going to work
and there no facilities there and that
would be a catastrophe. So having gone
through it, what was your sense of which
bits of it, if any, really did hold up
to scrutiny?
>> Well, I think we all when we look at the
polling, we can see that the concern
about immigration is rapidly rising
across the UK. And I emphasize now, Tom,
across the UK because in Scotland there
were different approaches, although the
social attitude survey suggested that
Scots had similar sort of levels of or
thoughts on on the idea of immigration.
in terms of concern just I think four or
five years ago about 4% of people in
Scotland voters in Scotland regarded
that as a significant issue and now it's
more than 20%. So, I mean, this is
catching on, as you say. It's not just
on these islands either. It's happening
across Europe. Um, and there's these
populist populist movements that are not
necessarily come up coming up with
answers, but they're certainly
simplifying the situation. And I think
that that's what reform are trying to
tap into here. And I think if you were
to talk to a lot of the people certainly
that I've met over the last year
reporting on the rise of this issue of
uh, you know, concern for immigration,
we saw from you know, the riots in
Northern England uh, last year. We've
seen uh trouble in Northern Ireland this
year and also as I say we're seeing
protests outside hotels already um this
year including in Scotland um recently
which is a relatively new phenomenon
here. And when we're talking to people
they're not I don't think that those
people will be that concerned about us
in the media highlighting
inconsistencies or a flip-flop. They
will hear the headline mass deportations
600,000 will be out in the first 5
years. And that's what they
fundamentally care about Tom. And I
think that that is where Labor will
struggle to out Farage Farage because
Labor are a party that can is concerned
about the detail. They're concerned
about you know does this manifesto hold
water whereas reform have a lot less to
lose in that respect. And so I think I
mean I'll be really interested to see
how reforms vote where it goes and and
and and the distribution of the vote.
But I think from what we've heard and
what we've seen on the streets of the UK
over the last 12 months, it's something
that we simply cannot ignore. That this
is a it's an issue. It's no longer
something that's kind of it hidden away
in in kind of uh uh kind of dark rooms
that that people are meeting for
National Front meetings or BNP meetings.
Conversations are happening around
dinner tables across this country now
where people are expressing their
concern about the level of immigration.
And I also think Tom, it's important to
stress that people recognize maybe more
more so than the politicians do that
there's different types of immigration.
There's different kinds of immigration.
Someone who might live in a leafy suburb
that their exposure to immigration is
is, you know, a doctor or a surgeon or
the teacher or a nurse or an opair
coming to live in their area. It's very
different to people in a lot of the kind
of what would have traditionally been
workingass areas in Britain and what
they've seen and what their exposure to
immigration has been. And and I think
that that's something that the political
parties out with outside of of of
reform, the other political parties have
really struggled to tap into that and to
recognize the curve on this. Whereas
reform and Nigel Farage, this is their
territory. This is fair tail ground for
them. And you know, if you're going to
try and go toe-to-toe with Nigel Farage
as Labor must do, as you've said, um on
this issue, well, you know, you're
you're kind of, you know, you're playing
rope a doe with Muhammad Ali and he's
usually better at it than you.
>> That's a good analogy. I mean, I think
it's a very good point and I sort of
feel like it's
I mean, based on nothing except having,
I suppose, watched these things for a
great deal of time and covered politics
for many years, you you sometimes feel
like something's reached a tipping
point. And if you if you look at the the
polling, it tells you, as I said, a
pretty clear story about national
standing right now. And we can debate
whether that how solid that really is.
And there one of the reasons to think
that it's not that solid and it
certainly doesn't mean that we're sure
to have a reform uh government or Nigel
Farage as prime minister even if there
was an election tomorrow is that you
look at who would make the best prime
minister and Karma is still you know the
polling reverses and Karma is still 68
10 points ahead of Nigel Farage
and what that I think is telling us is
that people are annoyed with the
government over issues like this, which
is why they say they're going to vote
for Farage, but they don't necessarily
want Prime Minister Farage, at least not
yet. They just want Karma to get his act
together. And I think you're absolutely
right about the dangers of kind of, you
know, trying to out Farage Farage on
immigration. But as you also point out,
the real difficulty Labour's got is, you
know, K Starmmer, Robert and I on this
podcast, we just spend hours and hours
of our time talking about Kier
Starmmer's lack of basic political
instincts. And you know, those of people
around him, you know, they don't sense
which way the wind is moving. They don't
move fast enough. And you know, Tony
Blair used to be really, really good at
that. He'd sense the way the wind was
moving and he'd move quickly. Sometimes
he took a stand on something and with
things like Iraq that didn't work out
very well. But by and large he would
when he saw that the public was moving
one way he got ahead of it and all the
rest of it. It seems to me very clear
that Nigel Farage is not going to win
the next election unless as I said he
can get a grip of this issue and
choosing this moment to come out and
kind of say yes well you know I'm
totally committed to the European
Convention on Human Rights and all the
rest of it. It might be what he
believes, but I'm just not sure that
that's a position that's going to be
sustainable for the next six months. And
I guess that's what's intrigued me about
the last 10 days. One of the reasons I
wanted to do this podcast. But the other
thing I wanted to kind of drill down
into with you was I think people who,
you know, cover politics from London
tend to think of reform as an English
phenomenon. You know, Scotland's we
sometimes think of it as a more socially
democratic country. Lots of Scots people
are very proud of saying their country
is more socially democratic than
England. So what do you make of the fact
that he was in Scotland of reform
standing in Scotland of reforms
political prospects in Scotland?
I think well you you make a really
interesting point Tom and it is the
public perception that Scotland is this
um socially liberal progressive country
almost like a Scandinavia of of these
islands and that's something again that
um that the SNP have worked hard to try
and um kind of rebrand Scotland as
during their time in power. I think
again we do need to point back to social
attitude surveys have shown that there's
not that much of a gap between Scottish
people's attitudes towards immigration
compared with other parts of the UK.
Although in Scotland until recently
people in Scotland had a le a lot less
exposure to immigration and certainly on
the type of scale that we've seen in
some places in England that's starting
to change and attitudes are starting to
change. So just again some statistics
put it you know into context in Glasgow
which was it prided itself Tom on being
this sanctuary city. Refugees are
welcome here. There's an organization
refugee here you know they say that call
calling people that come here are are
new Scots. They're just you know we'll
embrace them. But we've kind of seen a
situation where people's conscience is
coming into conflict with capacity now
because we've got a situation where
refugees are already taking up more than
half of all the temporary accommodation
in the city of Glasgow. It's the number
one place at the moment for asylum
seekers uh being sent to for hotel
accommodation next year. That's going to
cost Glasgow about 66 million pounds
according to Glasgow City Council's
forecast. And we're talking about a
council that has the second highest uh
budget deficit in the UK just behind
Birmingham, a 1.6 billion pounds
deficit. So you know again that as I say
the council and the people and the
political conscience have been writing
checks that the bank balance actually
can't support. I think that's something
we saw similar in Sweden that you know
Sweden and was was very open welcoming
to to refugees until there was a point
where people were saying hang on a
second when is is is when does enough
become too much? When are the school
halls filled? winner that you know the
we're losing capacity where there's
nowhere else for people to go. It's
putting strain on resources. I don't
think that Scotland is at that point
yet. I don't think Scotland's close to
breaking point anywhere near that, Tom.
It's still a a very kind of relatively
monocultured nation, but we have had
those warning shots in in the Hamilton
bi-election. Reform finished third. That
was unthinkable just a year ago. Um they
overtook the Scottish Conservatives in
that seat. Um and finishing uh just
behind Labor, the S&P and Labor who won
the seat. Um, I think that the the, you
know, the the tide has changed across
the country and I think that people here
are in Scotland, although we're not
seeing small boats landing in Scotland,
people are not exposed to this type of
immigration that Nigel Fresh talks about
so much directly as much as people, for
example, in towns and cities across the
north of England. I think people can see
that if that's happened there, they
there's a lot of people are saying we
need to almost there's movements of
people here saying that they want to be
preemptive. Um and there is the same
fear around the hotel situation again
boil down to the same fears of
immigration, the same fears of saying we
have to protect our women and children.
And that's something I think that these
it's not political movements, it's
street movements that have learned from
each other across Europe and America of
how to sort of tap into people's psyche
and conscience on this issue to really
make it hit home. So that um you know
people are think you know won't you
think of the women and children um and
the people who are suffering in this is
obviously it's the the asylum seekers
who are coming here the vast majority of
whom are not committing crimes. Um and
Nigel Farage again today in Scotland
tapping into this idea saying you know
because Scotland would pride itself on
being anti-racist traditionally um and
saying well this is not about racist
it's about culture and we're talking
about people coming from cultures where
there is higher levels of sexual assault
and there there you know there is a
higher level of you know child marriage
for example. I think another thing to
emphasize, Tom, is that there is and has
been for some time a gap between the
Scottish Parliament and the Scottish
people when it comes to the issue of
immigration. The Scottish Parliament was
almost unified and pretty much entirely
unified by a few exceptions that it was
a Scotland was pro-immigration would be
very progressive on this front and as I
say that slogan, refugees are welcome
here. Um, you would struggle to find,
you know, a prominent voice in the
Scottish Parliament that would speak in
the way that Nigel Farage speaks. Again,
that's changing. Today, we've seen a
defection from the Scottish
Conservatives uh uh to reform. Nigel Far
saying it was his first Scottish MSP.
Not actually true. They did have an MSP,
a female Michelle Ballentine um a few
years ago. Nigel Far says that was
before his time. So, forgive him for for
that oversight. But we will start to see
people, the political parties in
Scotland, as they have in Westminster,
recognizing the way that people are
going. And I think you will start to see
some of that populist rhetoric that that
has worked in England really tapping
into the public the public uh conscience
in Scotland on this issue. So I don't
think I think we've learned Scotland is
not immune from this and I think we will
see in in we have an election next year
Tom a Hollywood election next year.
That'll be a real test for how reform
can can perform at the ballot box. And I
think going back to again the point on
the economy I think you know when it
comes to voters you know that there are
people who vote for reform because of
their stance on immigration. So I think
reform's stance on immigration will win
them votes but it's really going to be
how they can back up their their
policies on the economy that would win
them elections. Um and I think if people
fear that they were going down another
path of a kind of Liz Trust type budget
that would put people's mortgages up and
the price of everything going up. I
think people have been bitten by that
one and they'd be shy to try that again.
So I do think that as much as reform can
appeal to the populist side, they also
have to get down to the brass tax and
and make that stack up.
I mean, I think like the final point
maybe is,
you know, for those of us who have been
like you covering immigration for a
very, very long time,
certainly at Westminster, the
frustration I guess I've always had is
the sort of
the way that politicians talk about it
is so far from the kind of actual
reality. So, you know, David Cameron
coming out saying he wanted to reg, you
know, decrease immigration to the tens
of thousands. Absolutely. Everyone knew
that wasn't going to happen and it
wasn't going to happen for lots of good
reasons at the time. Obviously, we're in
the EU, so he didn't control it anyway.
So, it wasn't something he could
achieve. But more broadly, the fact of
the matter is we haven't had meaningful
productivity growth in our economy for a
very long time. We've got no sign of any
uh appearing in a sufficiently
substantial way to solve our problems.
in that regard. So mostly the only
reason our economy grows is because of
immigration. Our population grows, our
economy grows. And the trouble to tell
you what you already know, but some
people perhaps listening to this won't
is that I mean there may be lots of
reasons why you don't want immigration.
But like at least if you're going to
have immigration and you're going to
have it in part because you haven't
found any other way to get your economy
to grow, then at the very least you have
to build the houses and the services and
the GP surgeries and everything else
that a growing population needs. And you
know that's another part of the problem
we don't spend much time focusing on.
you know, we haven't built certainly in
England and across the UK in D2. We
haven't built anything like even close
to the number of houses that would be
needed to keep pace with the growth of
our population. And you know, I think
that's a massive contributing fact. And
obviously, Labor is trying to resolve
that. They're trying to increase house
building, but it's very hard and we all
know it's very hard. And you know there
is a difference between legal
immigration that's controlled and to
some extent you've got a means of
determining who you get and illegal
immigration where people are you know
are kind of arriving here and then it's
very difficult to get rid of them and
obviously some of them are asylum
seekers who we want to give uh a home to
but it's very difficult when you don't
control it. Do you feel that any of
those arguments when you go out and talk
to people about immigration, do you find
any of those slightly more complex
arguments have a home? Or is it people
are just done with it and they don't
really want to listen to complex
arguments and they actually just want
much many fewer people and that's the
end of it.
>> I think it's a bit of both, Tom, when we
speak to people um across the UK. Um,
but I think if I want to particularly
focus on Scotland for a second, if you
don't mind, Tom, speaking to people here
who are sure catching this wave of this
kind of anti-immigration uh um kind of
populism,
there are people like you say that
they've got their mind made up. It's
Brexit means Brexit and anti-immigration
means anti-immigration and we're going
to stop the boats. All these kind of
slogans that they've heard over the
years, they can regurgitate now and say
that it's, you know, they've got their
own views on we just need to get them
all out type of thing. Um but there are
people who might start with a position
of saying I've got concerns about
immigration. I've got concerns about
safety. And when you engage in
conversations about you understand that
their concerns are coming from their own
vulnerabilities that a feeling of
unfairness that they if they are unable
to put the heating on in their house or
making decisions about kind of what food
to feed their children while going
without themselves and they look across
the road and they see a a hotel that's
been used for migrants and they're
walking around with shorts and t-shirt
on because they've got the heating on.
It generates resentment. We've put we've
put people juxtapos juxtaposition people
juxtaposed them right beside each other
kind of extremes. It doesn't mean that
people in hotels are living in luxury
but it's easy to understand why that
resentment builds. But then again you
start to speak to people about they're
concerned you know the winter fuel
allowance and stuff and you say well
hang on a second in social care it's one
of the areas that this country massively
relies on immigration to to fill jobs
in. In Scotland we talk about you know
in the agricultural sector. You know,
fruit would not be picked in this
country if it weren't in in Scotland if
it weren't for migrant labor coming
here. It would be left in the field to
rot. People in this country, you speak
to farmers, they're saying people from
Scotland do not want these jobs, not
certainly in the numbers that we need uh
to have a sustainable business. That's,
you know, when we talk about social
care, the agricultural sector, there's
so many other areas of this country that
relies so much on migrant labor to come
here. I think that there's a feeling
about that a lot of people even though
who are not going to vote for reform
there's a lot of people who are coming
round to the idea Tom that it has has
kind of spiraled out of control and that
someone needs to come up with a way to
get it back under control to to take
another slogan take back control and I
think so many people have been um led up
the garden path by slogan after slogan
that think this was going to make it
better this was going to make it better
no this is the answer to it and I think
that that's why when people run of
options. That's when they lurch into
kind of more extremes and they're
willing to take more of a risk. So, I
think that's the vulnerability that um
that that all of the mainstream
political parties have that, you know,
Labor had had capitalized on a lot of
fatigue with the Conservatives last year
um without having to be particularly
excellent themselves. But if they've
proven that shown people that they they
kind of they're just like the rest of
them, I think that's when people are
willing to take a chance with reform.
And that's exactly what we've seen in
Scotland. people were, to give a a good
Scottish expression, a bit scared with a
bit fed up with the with the SNP after
so long in power. They'd had a year of
labor and seeing Labor in power and
saying that they weren't much different.
The fatigue was still very real with
with the Conservatives. And so in that
Hamilton bi-election, people lent their
vote to reform. And I think that's a
very real risk again going into the next
election in Hollywood for for these
mainstream political parties that they
could be losing votes simply because
people are fed up with their track
record.
Peter, that was a very excellent
summary. Nice to talk to you as always.
We better go because we're recording
this just before news at 10. And it
won't be a news at 10 unless we shut up
now. But thank you very much for joining
us on this special episode of Talking
Politics. We'll be dropping talking
politics Q&A episodes across the rest of
the summer. Not that there's much of it
left, uh, where Robert and I, of course,
answer your questions. And if you
haven't already hit subscribe on YouTube
or any podcast platform to make sure you
never miss out on an episode, then
please do. Goodbye.